President Donald Trump arrived at the White House alongside a host of executive orders that sent the advocate, ally, and Afghan communities into a tailspin. At present, Afghanistan’s future is like Schrodinger’s cat: both alive and dead, forgotten and recalled, completely and utterly unknown.
Amid this period of uncertainty, I found myself thinking about the last three and a half years I have largely spent pushing out articles about Afghanistan in the media. Since May 2021 forward, those stories have run the gamut of highlighting veterans’ concerns about moral injury resulting from the Taliban’s takeover, telling the stories of our allies and of Afghans struggling under Taliban rule, raising awareness about volunteer efforts to keep Afghans housed, and fed, advocating for Americans in Taliban custody, and putting the heartless decision-making of bureaucrats under a microscope for the world to see.
There have been myriad times during this difficult journey when all has seemed utterly hopeless. Evacuation flights have been paused, girls’ schools have been shuttered, fundraising has dried up, and beloved humans have lost their lives. Amidst all the darkness, those stubborn few of us have continued to fight.
The dark times upon us now harken back to the early post-withdrawal days when volunteers were scrambling to establish normalcy amidst mayhem.
The Trump administration has placed an immediate three-month pause on the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program while evaluating whether the program will continue. According to Shawn VanDiver, president of the # AfghanEvac coalition, this impacts between 40,000 and 60,000 P-1 and P-2 candidates referred to the USRAP by virtue of their employment with U.S. organizations or through the U.S. Embassy, UNHCR, or U.S. government. VanDiver estimated that between 8,000 and 10,000 of those applicants are fully vetted and ready to travel.
The executive order also impacts what are likely thousands of P-3 reunification cases from Afghan families who remain apart after being separated during the withdrawal, as well as P-4 Welcome Corps cases, in which private sponsors had personally raised funds to help bring Afghans to the U.S.
As of January 24, Trump’s executive orders may also involve a three-month pause on the Special Immigrant Visa program. According to the most recent SIV quarterly report, more than 125,000 applicants are waiting at various stages of the SIV process. Concerns about the program were already looming. Because Congress has not yet appropriated additional SIVs, the number of Afghans who have received Chief of Mission (COM) approval, the first hurdle in the SIV process, has likely overtaken the number of appropriated SIVs remaining. As of Jan. 24, Andy Sullivan, Chief Advocacy Officer for the nonprofit No One Left Behind, told me that he believes around 11,000 available SIVs remain for the more than 12,000 COM-approved applicants.
Afghans involved in the SIV and USRAP programs have endured a great deal of chaos over the past 3.5 years while waiting for the U.S. government to fulfill its promises. Neither program has been adjudicated within the timelines delineated to applicants – nine months for the SIV program and 12-18 months for the USRAP, which has led to endless distress, economic hardship, and fear of Taliban retribution. But the latest changes have thrust Afghans into dizzying turmoil as they wonder whether the program they hung their hopes upon will be shuttered before they can utilize it.
In order to view the impact of these orders from the human level, several Afghans in the USRAP process shared their stories on condition that I refer to them using pseudonyms.
Najib
Najib worked with an Irish company on a project funded by the US Agency for International Development until the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, and his project was halted.
Though he could not qualify for an SIV, Najib was referred to the USRAP under the P-2 program in October 2021. Najib got his ARR number in August 2022 and, in June 2023, submitted forms from the Department of State asking for his location. It was not until March 2024 that the International Organization for Migration (IOM) interviewed Najib and told him to prepare for a second pre-travel screening interview.
After this long wait for answers, Najib said, “This uncertainty has left me feeling anxious and despondent, as I have endured significant insecurity, unemployment, and dangerous situations during this prolonged waiting period. I have attempted to leave Afghanistan multiple times, but the risks involved—both financially and in terms of personal safety—have deterred me. I desperately hope to see my P2 case processed successfully so that I can safely and lawfully begin a new life.“
Najib urged the Trump administration “to reconsider the decision to suspend the USRAP program before your allies face further insecurity and dangerous situations in their current locations, especially in Afghanistan. The situation is unpredictable, and many US allies are at risk of being left behind, facing dire consequences.”
Ziauddin
Ziauddin is also a P-2 applicant employed by the International Rescue Committee on a project funded by USAID. His IOM interview was completed in July 2024, and he reports that he has completed his Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts (CARE) relocation form two times, most recently in December 2024. He has been waiting for medical and biometric testing. “Is there any possibility that Trump will cancel this forever?” Ziauddin asked.
Amina
Amina was referred to the P-1 program in the USRAP in February 2022. Though IOM interviewed her in September 2023, Amina has not heard further word about whether her case is approved. She relocated to Mexico, where her children had to attend private schools if she wanted to give them an education.
Amina said that time “has been passing very hard for me and my family, without a work permit and waiting without approval. The recent executive order affected my morale badly, but what can I do?”
Volunteers and Veterans
These pauses also hit volunteers who have been working for 3.5 years to achieve safety for our allies, many of whom are veterans. The mental health implications could be resounding, as Kate Kovarovic explained in The Afghanistan Project Podcast on January 25. “If we do not allow for a pathway for Afghans to continue coming to the U.S. and if we continue to see executive orders of this nature, volunteers and Afghans are going to start committing suicide at numbers that we have not yet seen,” Kovarovic explained.
“They are in a landscape that is so against their interests…that they do not see a way forward,” Kovaravic said. “This is a veterans’ issue. This is a human issue,” she emphasized.
Beth Bailey (@BWBailey85) is a freelance contributor to Fox News and the host of The Afghanistan Project, which takes a deep dive into nearly two decades of war and the tragedy wrought in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Yes, Trump is screwing with a lot of people's lives.
But don't forget that the Biden administration wasted 3+ years.
The entire US bureaucracy is a mess, with pettifogging administrators screwing up people's lives with no consequences.
Musk at least is trying to shape up the system.
Did someone have enough hopium to think this would end differently?